Unscientific Survey: The Phillies and the Wisdom of Crowds

Our last survey attempted to apply the concept of the “wisdom of the crowd” to the upcoming baseball season. We asked you to guess how many games the Phillies will win and how far they’ll get in the postseason.

The average number of wins predicted was 86; worked out over a 162-game season, that’s a slightly-better-than-mediocre winning percentage of .531. Your postseason predictions were in line with that assessment, as nearly two-thirds of respondents said the Phils either wouldn’t make the playoffs or would lose in the opening round.

Swarthmorean readers’ projections were in line with those of the experts. The average number of victories predicted by Philadelphia Inquirer baseball writers was 87. On opening day, the Las Vegas over-under number for Phillies wins was an extremely mediocre 80 ½ , and the odds of the team winning the World Series were listed at 35-1.

However, as of this writing, the Phillies’ record is 4-0. Is an undefeated season too much to ask? Hope springs eternal.